Why Corzine can (and will) win in 2009

The Democracy Corp poll released on Thursday finally puts Corzine in the race for Governor; however, after reviewing the numbers, Corzine might not be in as much trouble as many think (click here for link.) Doing a simple exit poll analysis, it is quite clear that Corzine is losing amongst three key constituent groups – Liberals, Democrats, and Young People.

That’s right – key Democratic voters, it seems, are not supporting Corzine at the same levels they supported either Obama or Senator Robert Mendez in 2008 and 2006, respectively. Of course, this raises an essential problem for the Corzine campaign, but one that is easily remedied, by concentrating resources on core supporters who are accessible, open to Corzine’s message, and, most importantly, easier to persuade than Independent voters.

Based on 2006 exit polls (click here for link) and the recently released Democracy Corps poll, if Liberals, Moderates, and Conservatives were to vote the same way in 2009 as they did in 2006, Corzine would end up beating Christie 50.4% to 47.06%. In 2006, 87% of Liberals supported Senator Menendez; however, now only 74% support Corzine. Even with the shift in affiliation observed from 2006 to the Democracy Corp poll, with 11% more conservatives, Corzine still wins if he can bring voting levels up to 2006 standards. Actually, even if only Liberals vote the same in 2009 as they did in 2006 (and the Moderates and Conservatives vote as they say they will in the Democracy Corp poll), Corzine still ends up eking out a victory 44.91% to 43.27%. While not a mandate or stunning victory, it still secures Corzine’s place in the Governor’s mansion.

Again, the same trend is seen in how Democrats, Independents and Republicans are voting. Currently, only 77% of Democrats say they will vote for Corzine, while 92% voted for Menendez in 2006 and 89% voted for President Obama in 2008. If Corzine can get 90% of Democrats to vote for him (a similar level to 2006 and 2008), he will beat Christie by almost four points – 46.77% to 42.99%. Now, in each of these estimates, there has still been about 5 to 10 percentage points on the table, but that is the range that Independent Chris Daggert is coming in at – there is no need to win half the votes to win the election, a plurality will put Corzine back in Trenton for four more years. And, by convincing Liberals and Democrats to come out for Corzine, he can defeat Christie.

The most striking group that lacks support for Governor Corzine is, by far, young people (18 to 39 year olds.) In the Democracy Corp poll, only 37% say they will vote for Corzine. While exit polls don’t do their age range in such a way, in both 2006 and 2008 at least 57% of voters aged 44 and younger voted Democrat. What is even more interesting is that this same group overwhelmingly approves of the job President Obama is doing in Washington. Obama’s favorability score in the Democracy Corp poll is 59.9 (out of 100) among 18 to 39 year olds. If Corzine can reverse this trend and have 55% of young people (18-39 year olds) vote Corzine, he will beat Christie 45.03 to 43.11%. Here again it is clear that if Corzine can get three core Democratic groups to vote for him at similar levels as 2006 and 2008, he can beat Christie, not necessary in a landslide, but a convincing solid win.

Moving forward, then, two things become abundantly clear. First, the Corzine campaign needs to use its outreach and field operations to contact and persuade the standard Democratic voters. Voter contact (direct mail, canvasses, and calls) to these key Democratic constituents will increase their support for Corzine and, as we have seen above, lead the Governor to victory. Secondly, the campaign should continue to capitalize on the popularity of Obama. Even as many polls put his popularity around 50% nation-wide, among these key groups in NJ, he is still extremely popular. These groups are more apt not only to follow the President but also listen to his message. If that message happens to be reasons to vote for Corzine, they are much more likely than other voters to hear the message and put it in the mix when deciding whom to vote for in 2009. By focusing energy and money on these three crucial groups and using the popularity of President Obama, Corzine can increase his numbers among these three critical groups that he needs in order to maintain the Governor’s mansion.

Lastly, if we quickly revisit history, we will find a similar trend. In late August and early September of 2006, many polls put Thomas Kean, Jr. ahead of Senator Menendez. Looking back at a poll conducted in late August of 2006 by Farleigh Dickinson university, Menendez had similar low levels of support among Democrats and Liberals that Corzine has today (click here for link.) However, when it came closer to the election and time to really make a decision, most of these voters, as we know from the exit polls, went with Menendez. For whatever reason, New Jersey Liberals and Democrats seem to like to consider other candidates before the end of October rolls around and they decide to vote Democrat.

This same shift might well happen again in 2009, and if Corzine focuses his attention and energy on these groups, it is more likely to happen, and he is more likely to remain in Trenton.

For the 2008 Presidential Exit Polls in New Jersey, please click here.

Follow Up: Corzine gaining, seems fast enough

Just a quick follow up on yesterday's post. Today, Democracy Corps released a poll that puts Corzine within striking distance of Chrisite. He now leads Governor Corzine 43 to 41%. If this weren't bad enough, my hypothesis about President Obama remains true in New Jersey, with 55% of voters viewing him 'warmly' (aka favorably) in New Jersey - the highest rating among the candidates for Governor and the political parties. His influence in the race could push Corzine to over take Chrisite in the next few polls we see.

Also, an article in the Newark Star-Ledgar that came out today pointed to the same Quinnipiac poll I talked about yesterday that showed taxes (and property taxes specifically) as the most important issue to voters. The Ledgar asks why neither candidate is addressing the issue. For Corzine, he is strongest when he is painting Christie as a hypocrite and advocating his economic plan - it is difficult for an incumbent to tout plans on property taxes when, in the eyes of the voters, he has not done much to relieve their pain in the last four years. For Christie, the more marred in turmoil and scandal he gets, and the more the Corzine campaigns continues its successful attacks, the less credible he will be to unveil any plan for property taxes - the voters will not trust his plan, not matter how good it is. And, even if he does, the Corzine campaign only need use his weak stance on ethics reform in his past political career to continue to paint Christie as a politician who talks the talk but won't and can't walk the walk. The issue is a non-starter for both candidates, which is why it isn't being brought up. In many ways the economy can be a stand in for taxes in this election, so by emphasizing his economic credentials and performance, Corzine will do well with voters concerned about their high taxes - taxes don't seem so high if people can get secure well paying jobs.

More to come this weekend, hopefully.

For the results of the Democracy Corps poll, click here.

For the full Star-Ledgar article, click here

Poll Helps RNC Look to Defeat Obamacare

For the Huffington Post article and the RNC poll, click here

Cynics are often leery of polls and pollsters – believing they are mechanisms used by politicians to create inoffensive sound bites and policy that will get them and keep them elected. Usually this is not the case – polls are used to inform politicians where they are with the public and what aspects of their plan/policy needs to be emphasized, whether the electorate is informed about them and their ideas and, subsequently, the best message to use to inform them. They are not entirely evil.

However, the Huffington Post reports about an RNC poll that is just that – evil. Democratic polls on healthcare (click here for Democracy Corps’ poll) concentrate on the President’s plan and what aspects of that plan Americans support and which they might need more explanation on before they are convinced will create a better healthcare plan. The RNC poll, on the other hand, concerns itself with one focus – defeating Obamacare.

One line of the recommendations based on the polling data is especially stunning. As Sam Stein reports, the strategist at the RNC concluded, “If Obama is allowed to sell this…he wins.” Winning and losing might be appropriate terms when dealing with elections, but not with proposed reforms of the healthcare system. Here, it should not be about winning but about enacting the best reforms in order to insure that Americans have access to the best healthcare in the world while not breaking the budget. Michael Steele, apparently, is only concerned with beating the President – shameful!

All of this aside, let’s take a look at what the RNC poll says about healthcare and what it means for the Democrats moving forward.

(Note: the poll was conducted between June 15-17, 2009, thus the results are somewhat outdated; however, the messaging aspects of the poll are still somewhat relevant as we move into August without a healthcare bill. Another note, the poll segments the population into Democrats, Independents, Republicans, and ‘Ticketsplitters.’ While I have some idea what they might be referring to, without the full data, I will not discuss this segment.)

Findings and Insights: Disregarding approval ratings, favorability, and generic congressional ballot numbers (they are now over a month old) there is still some interesting gems hidden in this poll. First off, when asked if people would prefer a Congressional candidate that is a ‘check and balance’ on the President versus one that will help Obama with his agenda, 50% prefer the former (61% among independents.) With more than a year to go before the midterms, positioning candidates as checks on a popular President might be a successful strategy, especially if the President’s popularity keeps supporters home from the polls.

Turning to the healthcare debate, 51% of respondents say their biggest concern, when it comes to healthcare, is costs while only 20% say access and 6% say quality. Further, 59% (62% among independents) support the government having an active role in lowering the cost of healthcare, but not a government-run system (only 32% support this notion.) While Americans are split 56-44 on whether America has the best healthcare in the world, an overwhelming majority (70%) believe the system is in need of reform. And, when it comes to that reform 49% say they trust the Democrats to fix the system, whereas only 29% of respondents trust the Republicans to fix it.

Americans yearn for reform to healthcare, but want the costs to be controlled and do not want the government to run it. As House Democrats and the President look for ways to offset the costs of their healthcare plan, the faster they can show the public that it will be budget neutral, the faster they will gain support. Additionally, if they can emphasis that the public plan is not government-run healthcare but, instead, a system that keeps health insurance companies honest, they will win support on that side of the debate as well.

Public Opinion on Obamacare Specifics: 88% of Americans support making ‘quality healthcare coverage affordable and accessible to every America.’ Further, 71% support forcing insurance companies to cover Americans regardless of pre-existing conditions. And, when it comes to helping small businesses provide healthcare to their employees, an impressive 79% of Americans is in support of this aspect of Obamacare.

When it comes to what Obama is proposing, Americans are if full support; however, the devil is in the details here. If the President can get this accomplished without increasing the deficient, then he will, in the words of the RNC, ‘win.’

Messaging: Especially because Obamacare will not get through the House or Senate until after the August recess, messaging will be especially important – President Obama and his ‘opponents’ will have a month to move public opinion in their corner. The RNC’s poll focuses on messaging we have seen them using in the recent debates and, probably, will continue to use. One of the most powerful messages, that over half of Americans ‘strong agree’ with, is that Americans should not be forced into a government-run system where they will loose their current coverage and choice of doctor. An even more powerful message, which 77% of Americans agree with (57% strongly agreeing), concerns turning healthcare into a bureaucracy similar to the IRS and the DMV. Lastly, the most unfavorable message for Obamacare concerns the costs, which, when quoted at ‘over a trillion dollars’ makes 65% of Americans less favorable towards Obama’s plan. Summing up, Republicans are telling Americans Obamacare will drop them from their current coverage with their current flexible choices, create a system as loathed as the DMV (which isn’t even a federal agency), and will cost each taxpayer over $7,000.

These are powerful messages that score very well. If Democrats want to sway public opinion, they must overcome these messages by emphasizing that reform will mean getting to keep your current coverage (if you want to), decreased health insurance costs because the government will create more competition and more competition drives prices down, and that the plan will be budget neutral or save money in the long run (this, of course, still needs to be worked out in the final bills in the House and Senate, unfortunately.)

Democratic counter messaging: From a messaging basis, it is possible to confront the Republican attacks. The RNC poll has people split within the margin of error (2.9%) over support of Obamacare after they hear a description. This means there is much work to be done if public opinion will turn in the President’s favor; however, it is possible. Taken apart, 58% of Americans support creating a government plan that will compete with private insurers. Democrats have to stress the competition and the healthcare exchange that will provide people with ample information about all available plans – a market, which creates competition and will drive prices down. On universality, 57% of Americans support this notion of Obamacare – this works to counter Republican attacks of dropping people from their plan. Democrats can confidently say that in order to insure everyone (which has majority support) government needs to assist in creating a system and helping those who need the support (whether it be the poor or small business.)

63% of Americans do not support the government ‘setting prices for services and deciding what treatments it will and will not cover.’ This, of course, is not the case – if Democrats can stress quality medicine where doctors are compensated based on merit and not the number of tests they perform, this bleak figure can be overcome. If Democrats can frame this situation in a ‘merit pay’ argument (compensation for better care and not more care) then Americans will get behind Obamacare.

When it comes to ‘fining’ companies that do not provide health insurance or raising taxes and cutting Medicare to pay for this reform, 54% and 71%, respectfully, oppose this portion of the President’s plan. However, while these aspects of the plan have not yet been set in stone, Democrats need to do all that is necessary to cut costs – even if some taxes need to be raised to pay for healthcare, Democrats must stress creating budget neutrality and the reform paying for itself in reduced costs (both in Medicare and in general.) While Democrats do not have the strongest position here, especially in light of recent CBO scores, they can and must confront the increased tax argument Republicans are bound to throw them – tiny tax increases are a small price to pay to keep healthcare reform from increasing the deficit.

Lastly, 59% of respondents do not believe President Obama when he says that health care reform will be budget neutral. This, thus, makes it an even bigger priority and, once established, needs to be emphasized not only by Democrats but also by touting out experts to reassure the American public of the reform’s budget neutrality. Having this message come from people that appear non-partisan will go a long way in convincing the public that reform will fulfill the President’s budget pledge.

Conclusion: In any reform battle, the status quo usually has the better position; however, Democrats can successfully counter the Republican attack machine. By emphasizing that a government plan will compete with private insurance to reduce cost, create competition, and produce transparency will counter attacks about the government-run system. Stressing ‘merit pay’ for quality care over the quantity and complexity of care will counter the RNC’s attempts to paint Obamacare as having bureaucrats dictate care. And, lastly, budget neutrality must be achieved in policy and repeated over and over again to the American public by experts that appear non-partisan. If the Democrats can successfully do this, the RNC will not beat Obama and the real winners will be the millions of Americans who live in fear of being dropped from their healthcare plan or slipping into bankruptcy because of one illness. If they don’t, Americans will be the real losers in this debate – stuck with an inadequate healthcare system for the greatest nation in the world.

Looking at Healthcare

For the full polling data from Democracy Corps, please click here

To read Stan Greenberg's article in The New Republic, please click here

About a week ago, I posted Stan Greenberg’s piece in The New Republic. Now, let’s take a look at Mr. Greenberg’s numbers and the New York Times numbers to get a sense of where the healthcare debate is and where it should be heading.

Just as Stan Greenberg wrote, the numbers from 1993 to 2009 haven’t changed much. But, instead of concentrating on the similarities to the past (if you want that, please see Mr. Greenberg’s piece), let’s look at the present and, more importantly, what should be done moving forward.

Current Situation: While only 7% of Americans believe that Healthcare is the most important issue facing America right now, according to a recent NY Times poll, the Obama administration seems to be concentrating what little energy they have, while wrangling this beast of an economy back to ‘normalcy’, on healthcare.

A plurality of Americans, 48%, feel that ‘major changes’ are needed to the insurance healthcare system in America. Further, 58% say they are dissatisfied with the current healthcare system (43% say they are very dissatisfied and every group, except seniors, are either dissatisfied or split.) However, while Americans are dissatisfied with the current system generally, 72% are satisfied with their health insurance. This fact, not too unusual in American Public Opinion, will make this issue difficult for the administration – any change they propose may be seen by 72% of Americans as a break away from the satisfied service they are already getting from their insurance company. And, generally, people are willing to except the beast they have, as opposed to the beast they don’t know, so the administration has a tough sell ahead.

When it comes to the ‘nuts and bolts’ of reform, the nation is split over their concerns. 48% say they are more concerned that the current system will increase costs too much and become out of control than with the government taking over healthcare and reducing quality. Meanwhile, 46% of respondents believe the opposite is true. So while Americans are split, Independent voters are more concerned with the government taking over healthcare by a 13% margin.

Americans feel that the healthcare system in this country needs to be reformed, while leaving their own insurance plan alone. What’s more, while they feel the situation needs to be fixed, they are split over the government taking over and controlling the system and the current system becoming too unwieldy for proper management.

Goals and Concerns: American’s are conflicted over the process of reform, but are somewhat more clear on the goals they hope such reform will achieve. 39% (the largest percent of respondents) says that reducing costs should be the goal of any reform. And, while that ranks the highest, expanding coverage to children (33%), preventing insurance companies from denying coverage because of a pre-existing condition (31%), guaranteeing no one will lose coverage if they are sick, move, et cetera (29%), and expanding coverage to those without insurance (28%) are also on the priority list. Overall, Americans want reform to reduce cost, protect their current coverage, and expand coverage to more Americans.

When it comes to Americans concerns, they are most concerned with a Government run system restricting choice and becoming costly. 30% of respondents say their largest concern is that healthcare decisions will no longer be made by them, but by the government and 27% say that they are concerned that they will no longer be able to choose their own doctor. Meanwhile, 24% are concerned with an increase in taxes because of the reform.

Americans want costs to be reduced, coverage expanded and protected while not creating a Government run system that limits their choice and does not increases taxes – simply put, they want their current insurance expanded to everyone and guaranteed to them all at no additional charge.

Messaging and Moving Forward: 44% of likely voters favor President Obama’s healthcare proposal, while 18% do not have an opinion – a huge constituency. In a recent NY Times poll, 44% say they approve of the way the President is handling healthcare, but 22% don’t have enough information to make an opinion. With such large numbers of American’s without an opinion on what will continue to dominant the political arena, there is much room to change public opinion.

After a ‘critical argument’ is presented to voters under 65, the number in favor of the President’s plan increases from 47% to 55% while the number opposed increases to 40% from 36%. In the ratio, the President is winning when the argument takes place 2 to 1. However, to make sure that this ratio remains strong and splits the 18% without an opinion on the President’s plan to being in favor of the President, the right elements and messages must be used.

With over 84% support, Americans want to be given of choice between keeping their own health insurance or switching to a public plan, which is front and center in the President’s plan (he just has to spread the word.) 77 to 74% (depending on how the question is worded) support employers being required to either cover their employees or contribute to a fund to help them pay for coverage, with small business being given tax credits for such participation. Third on the list of highest supported initiatives is a potential plan is the requirement that insurance companies cover everyone at the same rate, regardless of pre-existing conditions, with 68% of respondents supporting it.

When it comes to positive messages that convince respondents to support the President’s plan, stressing the security and ‘peace of mind’ the plan offers scores at 72% convincing, while creating more choices for people comes in at 70%. No surprises there. These messages emphasis the goals Americans want out of healthcare reform. Further, when asked what ‘stood out’ about the positive aspects of the arguments respondents heard, universal coverage, affordability, and choice garnered 34, 22, and 15%, respectively.

On the negative side, “will force Americans to wait in line for care” and “puts Washington bureaucrats in charge of healthcare” scored 61 and 57%, respectively. And, when it comes to the worries people have the Obama health plan, the government’s involvement and increased costs are, by far, the largest with 52 and 38%, respectively.

So far, we have seen the Republican attack machine come out and say, over and over and over again, that the President’s plan will put Washington in charge of which doctor you see and what care you receive. If President Obama and his team are to be successful, they will have to emphasize increased coverage, choice, and how their plan will lower costs. Most importantly, they need to rebuke the myth that a man in Washington will pick the care a woman in California receives. If Democrats can successfully stress their strengths while negating the largest Republican attack (government control will be inefficient and reduce choice), than public opinion, at least, will be on the President’s side. If not, than Stan Greenberg might be right in thinking 1993 might repeat itself.

Note: All polling numbers are from the Democracy Corps poll cited above, except where the New York Times is cited. For the complete poll from The New York Times, please click here.

Two Interesting Articles on Public Opinion

Obama's Issues Crumbling by Dick Morris: Here, Morris shows us [Democrats] that while Obama's approval rating and favorability numbers are high in the sky, when it comes to issues, the tide is turning on the Democrats. While the numbers are correct, I don't buy into everything Mr. Morris says; however, there is some cause for concern. Democrats (in the House, Senate, and President Obama himself) must make sure that what happened to President Clinton in 1994 does not repeat itself in 2010. I will, hopefully, have some rebuttal and further comment on Mr. Morris' piece in the coming days.

Repeat the Question by Stan Greenberg: Greenberg, a former pollster and adviser to President Bill Clinton, prophesizes on the healthcare debate through the lens of the 1993 healthcare debate. He does a very impressive job showing the similarities and why Democrats need to worry about this debate (see piece above, as well.) I wish Democracy Corps (who did the polling) would release the entire poll with crosstabs; however, they do provide a pretty impressive presentation (click here to access.) In the coming days, I will, hopefully, be sorting through the data to see if there is anything interesting that Greenberg didn't note in his very through piece. But, I am sure that this is an issue that will not go away, and one that will say a lot about the 2010 midterms.

PS - More polling data/analysis to come in the next few days. I promise.