Why Corzine can (and will) win in 2009

The Democracy Corp poll released on Thursday finally puts Corzine in the race for Governor; however, after reviewing the numbers, Corzine might not be in as much trouble as many think (click here for link.) Doing a simple exit poll analysis, it is quite clear that Corzine is losing amongst three key constituent groups – Liberals, Democrats, and Young People.

That’s right – key Democratic voters, it seems, are not supporting Corzine at the same levels they supported either Obama or Senator Robert Mendez in 2008 and 2006, respectively. Of course, this raises an essential problem for the Corzine campaign, but one that is easily remedied, by concentrating resources on core supporters who are accessible, open to Corzine’s message, and, most importantly, easier to persuade than Independent voters.

Based on 2006 exit polls (click here for link) and the recently released Democracy Corps poll, if Liberals, Moderates, and Conservatives were to vote the same way in 2009 as they did in 2006, Corzine would end up beating Christie 50.4% to 47.06%. In 2006, 87% of Liberals supported Senator Menendez; however, now only 74% support Corzine. Even with the shift in affiliation observed from 2006 to the Democracy Corp poll, with 11% more conservatives, Corzine still wins if he can bring voting levels up to 2006 standards. Actually, even if only Liberals vote the same in 2009 as they did in 2006 (and the Moderates and Conservatives vote as they say they will in the Democracy Corp poll), Corzine still ends up eking out a victory 44.91% to 43.27%. While not a mandate or stunning victory, it still secures Corzine’s place in the Governor’s mansion.

Again, the same trend is seen in how Democrats, Independents and Republicans are voting. Currently, only 77% of Democrats say they will vote for Corzine, while 92% voted for Menendez in 2006 and 89% voted for President Obama in 2008. If Corzine can get 90% of Democrats to vote for him (a similar level to 2006 and 2008), he will beat Christie by almost four points – 46.77% to 42.99%. Now, in each of these estimates, there has still been about 5 to 10 percentage points on the table, but that is the range that Independent Chris Daggert is coming in at – there is no need to win half the votes to win the election, a plurality will put Corzine back in Trenton for four more years. And, by convincing Liberals and Democrats to come out for Corzine, he can defeat Christie.

The most striking group that lacks support for Governor Corzine is, by far, young people (18 to 39 year olds.) In the Democracy Corp poll, only 37% say they will vote for Corzine. While exit polls don’t do their age range in such a way, in both 2006 and 2008 at least 57% of voters aged 44 and younger voted Democrat. What is even more interesting is that this same group overwhelmingly approves of the job President Obama is doing in Washington. Obama’s favorability score in the Democracy Corp poll is 59.9 (out of 100) among 18 to 39 year olds. If Corzine can reverse this trend and have 55% of young people (18-39 year olds) vote Corzine, he will beat Christie 45.03 to 43.11%. Here again it is clear that if Corzine can get three core Democratic groups to vote for him at similar levels as 2006 and 2008, he can beat Christie, not necessary in a landslide, but a convincing solid win.

Moving forward, then, two things become abundantly clear. First, the Corzine campaign needs to use its outreach and field operations to contact and persuade the standard Democratic voters. Voter contact (direct mail, canvasses, and calls) to these key Democratic constituents will increase their support for Corzine and, as we have seen above, lead the Governor to victory. Secondly, the campaign should continue to capitalize on the popularity of Obama. Even as many polls put his popularity around 50% nation-wide, among these key groups in NJ, he is still extremely popular. These groups are more apt not only to follow the President but also listen to his message. If that message happens to be reasons to vote for Corzine, they are much more likely than other voters to hear the message and put it in the mix when deciding whom to vote for in 2009. By focusing energy and money on these three crucial groups and using the popularity of President Obama, Corzine can increase his numbers among these three critical groups that he needs in order to maintain the Governor’s mansion.

Lastly, if we quickly revisit history, we will find a similar trend. In late August and early September of 2006, many polls put Thomas Kean, Jr. ahead of Senator Menendez. Looking back at a poll conducted in late August of 2006 by Farleigh Dickinson university, Menendez had similar low levels of support among Democrats and Liberals that Corzine has today (click here for link.) However, when it came closer to the election and time to really make a decision, most of these voters, as we know from the exit polls, went with Menendez. For whatever reason, New Jersey Liberals and Democrats seem to like to consider other candidates before the end of October rolls around and they decide to vote Democrat.

This same shift might well happen again in 2009, and if Corzine focuses his attention and energy on these groups, it is more likely to happen, and he is more likely to remain in Trenton.

For the 2008 Presidential Exit Polls in New Jersey, please click here.

Follow Up: Corzine gaining, seems fast enough

Just a quick follow up on yesterday's post. Today, Democracy Corps released a poll that puts Corzine within striking distance of Chrisite. He now leads Governor Corzine 43 to 41%. If this weren't bad enough, my hypothesis about President Obama remains true in New Jersey, with 55% of voters viewing him 'warmly' (aka favorably) in New Jersey - the highest rating among the candidates for Governor and the political parties. His influence in the race could push Corzine to over take Chrisite in the next few polls we see.

Also, an article in the Newark Star-Ledgar that came out today pointed to the same Quinnipiac poll I talked about yesterday that showed taxes (and property taxes specifically) as the most important issue to voters. The Ledgar asks why neither candidate is addressing the issue. For Corzine, he is strongest when he is painting Christie as a hypocrite and advocating his economic plan - it is difficult for an incumbent to tout plans on property taxes when, in the eyes of the voters, he has not done much to relieve their pain in the last four years. For Christie, the more marred in turmoil and scandal he gets, and the more the Corzine campaigns continues its successful attacks, the less credible he will be to unveil any plan for property taxes - the voters will not trust his plan, not matter how good it is. And, even if he does, the Corzine campaign only need use his weak stance on ethics reform in his past political career to continue to paint Christie as a politician who talks the talk but won't and can't walk the walk. The issue is a non-starter for both candidates, which is why it isn't being brought up. In many ways the economy can be a stand in for taxes in this election, so by emphasizing his economic credentials and performance, Corzine will do well with voters concerned about their high taxes - taxes don't seem so high if people can get secure well paying jobs.

More to come this weekend, hopefully.

For the results of the Democracy Corps poll, click here.

For the full Star-Ledgar article, click here

Corzine gaining, but will it be fast enough?

On Monday, Neighborhood Research, a Republican polling firm, released a poll that, when ‘likely voters’ are considered, puts Governor Corzine ahead of Chris Christie 37-35% (with Chris Daggett receiving 6%.) (click here for link.) Hopefully, this won’t be the last poll to put Corzine ahead of Christe, but, still, 22% of ‘likely voters’ remain undecided about which candidate they are going to vote for come November. This, of course, is good news for Corzine, but it means he must continue the hard work he has endured throughout August – the relentless attack on Christie while pushing his credentials to be Governor can not cease or even relent mildly. Still, in order to understand where Corzine should go, we need to look at how he brought his sagging poll numbers up to, at the very least, a drawl so far. Since the last time I too a look at this very competitive race a lot has happened, so we need to start by figuring out what happened, how that affects the candidates, and what Corzine needs to do moving into the last 2 months of this intense campaign.

Context: The last time I looked at this race, I made one thing clear – Corzine can’t win on his popularity, he must win by making Christie the greater of two evils. The Corzine campaign has done just that, and it has had some benefits. In a recent Quinnipiac poll, from July 14^th to August 11^th, Christie’s unfavorables versus his favorables increased by a margin of 2 to 1; however, there is still 28% of the voters who haven’t heard enough about him to make a decision. However, one thing seems certain, the Christie camp is having a difficult time decreasing the Governor’s favorables. In the same Quinnipiac study, Corzine’s favorables increase by 3% while his unfavorables decrease by 4% - at the very least, Corzine’s campaign is solidly defending the Governor, at its best, the campaign is changing public opinion about the Governor. Either way, it doesn’t seem Christie’s campaign is having a great impact on voters, at least towards Corzine (click here for link.)

These numbers are in spite of the fact that on June 23^rd, Christie’s former place of employment (i.e. the US attorney’s office) arrested over 30 people, several of whom were elected officials, in one of the biggest corruption scandals in New Jersey. Christie’s message of ending state-wide corruption surely got a boast from this story. However, since mid-August, Christie has been rocked by scandal as well. First, President Bush’s ex-deputy chief of staff, Karl Rove, admitted to conversing with Christie while he was serving as US Attorney, possibly a violation of the Hatch Act. In addition, it was revealed that Christie failed to disclose a loan he made to a member of his staff at the US Attorney’s office (the staff member has subsequently resigned from the office) and the New York Times, as well as other news outlets, have chronicled Christie’s lack of effort as a freeholder to bring about ethics reform to his county. With all this adding up, the Corzine campaign has done nothing but bang the drum of hypocrisy at Chris Christie, which, it seems, hasn’t had the greatest effect on his election campaign.

Messaging and Moving Forward: When it comes to what the NJ Governor’s race will truly be about, one thing is clear – it is about the economy. 51% of voters (in the same Quinnipiac poll) believe that taxes or the economy are the most important issues facing New Jersey. Another 14% believe that a ‘lack of ethics’ or ‘politicians’ in general are the biggest issue facing New Jersey. This can all play right into the hand Governor Corzine has been dealt.

Though Christie still scores better with voters on who they think can fix most of New Jersey’s problems, Corzine is gaining ground, and it is clear that his campaign has had an impact on Christie – to succeed, this needs to continue.

1. First, the Governor must continue his unrelenting attacks on Christie’s hypocrisy – Corzine needs to paint him as a politician that will say one thing, yet do another. This will weaken Christie’s ‘ethics’ position and increase his unfavorables. If Christie’s ‘go-to’ position is weakened, he will be forced to talk about the pressing issues (taxes and the economy) in a real way. And, as he talks about them, voters will come to learn that his campaign lacks any real plan to fix the problems New Jersey faces.
2. President Obama is still very popular in New Jersey. A Daily Kos poll gives him an approval rating of 62% (61% among independents), whereas neither Corzine nor Christie break the 50% mark (click here for link.) Using the President to highlight the fact that New Jersey added over 13,000 private sector jobs while reducing public sector jobs by over 7,000 in the month of August could be a successful strategy in two regards. First, it will motivate the Democratic base, which, in New Jersey, must come out in full force to support Corzine if he is to win. Secondly, and equally important, Obama’s push on a positive economic outlook thanks to Corzine’s hard work will play well with Independent voters who like Obama but are leery of Corzine – it could just be the push they need to reconsider Christie (especially in the wake of his scandals.)
3. Lastly, Corzine needs to counter Christie’s recent attacks on him being a ‘wizard of Wall Street.’ Firstly, a majority of voters do not believe that Corzine’s prior career will make a difference on his ability to govern – and this is a trend that cuts through party ID. So, these attacks will, probably, be unsuccessful; however, it is important to counter – and counter strong. Corzine needs to come out and reiterate his economic expertise as a way to get New Jersey back on track. He can use this as an opportunity to call Christie out on his economic and tax plan (or lack thereof) and remind people of his budgetary accomplishments as governor. This must be used as an opportunity to turn the conversation around and say, ‘I know how to get us out of this mess, I’m already doing it – but it seems all Christie knows how to do is point figures, not create jobs.”

Corzine’s success in the next two months will rely on his ability to paint Christie as a typical politician – a champion of ethics reform, so long as it isn’t for him, and a critic of the Governor, without any real plans that will help New Jersey. By leveraging the current bad press Christie is receiving and allowing President Obama to trumpet his economic accomplishment, Corzine can create disillusionment with Christie while rallying Democrats and swaying Independents to his cause. When all is said and done, if he can pull this off, Christie will not be left standing.

Text Message Marketing: Why teens are changing the mobile marketing game

According to a recently released study from Pew (click here for link), cell phones are increasingly becoming the communication device of choice, especially among teens. 71% of all American teenagers have a cell phone, and among high school aged teens, that number is 83%. This is up from only a 45% penetration rate in 2004 – more than a 50% increase in usage over the past 5 years, and at what seems like an exponential pace. It seems that cell phone ownership sharply increases between the ages of 13 and 14 (when most teens enter high school) from 53% ownership to 72% ownership until ownership levels off in pre-college years at around 85%, which puts it at a higher rate than the average adult ownership rate (77%.) As more of these young cell phone users enter their adult years, the adult ownership rate can only increase to the 85% level seen in the pre-college teens.

What is more important than ownership, especially to the budding marketer or campaign strategist, is usage. Teens, while they do not disown the landline phone, are predominately on their cell phones. 38% of teens send text messages daily (up from 27% in 2006) while 36% make a phone call on their cell phone daily. To contrast that, only 29% spend time with friends in person daily outside of school and 24% IM daily – the people they won’t see daily after school are the ones they are texting and calling. Moreover, as teens migrated to a world of social networking, they become increasing reliant on their cell phones, with 54% of teen social network users sending text messages or IMs to friends through those sites. It seems that, when it comes to communicating, teens are becoming increasing dependent on this mobile technology to connect to and communicate with their peers.

Adults, on the other hand, have mixed feelings about the use of mobility. 39% are considered ‘motivated by mobility’ while 61% believe that ‘stationary media’ is fine for them. However, 18% of adults who are ‘motivated by mobility’ are, what Pew calls, ‘ambivalent networkers.’ (click here for link.) These networkers skew male, but are primarily in their early 20’s and have, ‘folded mobile devices into how they run their social lives, whether through texting or social networking tools online.’ As more of these teen texters grow up, they will, most probably, enter the world as ‘ambivalent networkers’ increasing their dependence on their mobile devices to run their social life and connect with friends and colleagues.

So, while it doesn’t seem like teens will abandon more traditional media and communication tools (still, 32% talk on a landline daily) they are adding the cell phone as into their repertoire and increasing their mobility and connectivity to friends and family. Meanwhile, their mobility will continue to increase as the use of smartphones replaces the old call-n-text cell phones of yesterday. According to the Wall Street Journal, the smartphone market grew by 78% between 2007 and 2008, and is expected to grow by over 350% by 2012 (click here for link.) As teens get their hands on this vital new piece of information technology, their communication habits and social networking abilities will just increase and more and more will enter adulthood as ‘ambivalent networkers.’

So, why is any of this important? As more teens rely on their cell phones to communicate, marketers and politicians will need to find new creative ways to use this medium to connect to their target audience. It gives companies and elected officials a chance to communicate to teens on their level – the challenge is getting the awareness and message in just about 160 characters. However, if done successfully, cell phones and smartphones, in the hands of teens, can become a powerful tool for marketers, campaign managers, and public health officials.

Take North Carolina, for example. The pregnancy prevention campaign of North Carolina set up a free text line where girls can text their question to an expert anonymously and, within 24 hours, have a professional non-judgmental text response to their question or concern (click here for link.) Or, Abilene Christian University that handed out iPhone’s to its freshman class to allow them to get digital handouts and class podcasts on their phone. Here, educators and public health officials are tapping into teen cell phone use (and, perhaps, abuse) to get them important information in a format they are comfortable with (click here for link.)

Of course, the most well-known, or at least well-documented, use of the cell phone to communicate a message has been President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign for President, which enlisted the help of the mobile phone to reach out to young supporters. And, it works. According to a Gallup study conducted in October of 2008, 38% of registered voters had been contacted directly by the Obama campaign, as opposed to only 30% by the McCain campaign. Moreover, when it came to voter contact in the crucial ‘purple’ states, Obama’s people contacted 53% of registered voters, as opposed to McCain’s 44%. Surely, this made a difference, and cell phone communication had something to do with it – particularly with the 18 to 29 year old age group, of which 40% were contacted by Obama’s staff, double the amount that were contacted by McCain’s people (click here for link.)

This, of course, raises the question: what made President Obama’s outreach successful? The answer, according to Distributive Networks, consists of 5 crucial components:

1. Seize control of the mobile channel
2. Build the opt-in list aggressively
3. Develop robust participant profiles
4. Optimize message frequency
5. Leverage mobile’s unique strengths

(click here for link.)

What this means for mobile marketing is that, it must be both personal and ubiquitous, while adding value to the consumer. Just as knowing who President Obama selected as his Vice President added valued to the millions that registered their mobile number to find out, businesses must create systems that enhance value for the consumer, not just deliver a message. Allowing consumers to check their account balance through their mobile phone, as Bank of America allows, is just one way marketers can capitalize on this ongoing and ever growing trend among today and tomorrow’s consumers (click here for link.)

On such a personal device as someone’s cell phone, successful mobile marketing campaigns will be one’s that add value to the users experience. These types of campaigns will reap the rewards of an ever-growing trend among America’s teens. On the other hand, marketers who fail to increase utility and see the phone as another mechanism to bombard the consumer with messaging will not only fail but also invade personal space, which could have increased backlash. Just as AT&T dealt with tremendous backlash from consumers when they spammed former American Idol text message voters with a reminder about the upcoming season, so too will other brands be hurt if they only communicate and don’t interact – don’t create a value-added experience for the user.

As teens become adults and move into the ‘ambivalent networker’ category with their smartphones buzzing from text messages, phone calls, and Facebook alerts, marketers will have to work harder to promote their brands and interact with customers, but in an increasingly mobile society, those who invest into smart campaigns that enhance the users experience will be rewarded, others will find that they have lost their signal.

More Up Soon, But Something For Now

Tomorrow and/or over the weekend, I'll be posting commentary on the NJ Governor's Race (and, perhaps the VA Governor's Race,) the 2010 and 2012 races (from the data we have now,) Healthcare Reform with a focus on the Press and Messaging (obviously,) and some comments on recent economic and consumer spending numbers.

For now, I'm simply posting a link to an article by Peter Wehner and Michael Gerson in Commentary Magazine. Titled, "SPECIAL PREVIEW: The Path to Republican Revival" (link here), it makes some very solid points about what the minority should do to regain its former glory. More importantly, it should wake Democrats up to realize that just because we are the majority today doesn't mean that will be the case come 2010 or 2012. We need to focus on reforming the Healthcare system and getting this economy back on track (it is what we were elected to do.) Nevertheless, give it a read, at the very least you'll be prepared if Republican strategists listen to this pretty insightful analysis from two former advisors to President Bush (Sr. and Jr.)