New Jersey – One More Time

I’ve gotten some feedback on my last post on the NJ Governor’s race, especially concerning my exit polling analysis of the race. Since then, two ‘new’ polls have come out from Quinnipiac and Farleigh Dickinson. So, here is a quick analysis of the race as it stands according to the latest polls (though with my luck, some more polls will be released early this week and I’ll have to re-do by analysis yet again.)

Baseline results: In the Quinnipiac poll, Christie continues to leads Corzine by 47-37% with 6% undecided. Thus, according to Quinnipiac, even if Corzine were to get all the undecided voters, he would still lose 47-43%. And, there seems to be no significant trend in the multiple Quinnipiac polls taken. Of course, when it comes to Christie’s favorables, we see a net positive rating of 11%, down from a net 16% rating in early August. Corzine, on the other hand, is at a net favorable rating of –23%, down from –17% in early August (the same is true for Corzine’s approval rating.) Even more shocking in the Quinnipiac poll is Barack Obama’s approval rating, which dropped from 60% in July to 51% (though, other polls put it higher in NJ.)

The Farleigh Dickinson poll puts the horse race at 42-47% in Christie’s favor (however, Daggert gets only 1% when he has been polling over 5% in most polls, which seems strange.) In terms of favorability, Corzine has a net negative rating of 17%, whereas Christie has a net positive rating of 3% (however, 25% of respondents state that they have no opinion of Christie, which, with Corzine’s campaign constantly on attack, could only help Corzine by raising Christie’s unfavorables.) In terms of voters’ perceptions of the candidates, neither Corzine nor Christie has an advantage on being seen as ‘honest or trustworthy;” however, by 13% respondents see Christie as the candidate concerned with problems of the average person, whereas Corzine is seen as having the proper background and experience to be governor by a margin of 13%.

Overall, these polls tell us what we already know – Corzine is still down, but not out. It is a tough race and voters in New Jersey have yet to make up their minds. The next two months of campaigning will be crucial. After another two weeks, I would like to see what happens to Christie’s numbers as voters come back from summer vacation (and summer mode in general) and start really paying attention in an attempt to deicide which lever to pull in November. Corzine has a lot of ammunition, while it looks like Chrisite may be running out (but the next month will be crucial.)

Previous Analysis: My last look at this race painted the situation as quite hopeful for Corzine, because key Democratic voters (liberals, people identifying themselves as Democrats, and young people are not saying they will vote for him at equal levels as they did in 2008 or 2006.) In the Quinnipiac poll, Democrats split their vote 74-15% for Corzine. In the two past elections, almost 90% of Democrats voted for the Democrat. Further, in the FDU poll, only 73% of Democrats say they will vote for Corzine (while a huge 18% say they are voting for Christie.) Again, this is the same problem we have seen in previous polls, and if (when) the Corzine campaign starts to focus on these crucial voters (and these voters finally make a final decision) it will give the needed votes to put Corzine back in Trenton.

I would have thought that a shift would start to appear now; however, there is still plenty of time. If by mid-October these numbers of Democrat’s voting intentions are still this poor, then there will be cause for alarm in the Corzine campaign. But, New Jersey voters are notorious for taking a long time to make up their minds (I pointed out the 2006 Senate race in my last post.) For instance, in today’s Washington Post, the director of the Quinnipiac poll is quoted as saying, “New Jersey is a goofy state as far as voting goes…Jersey always makes up its mind late.” As people looking at these numbers, we just have to wait until they do.

What to look for in the next few polls: Right now, in interpreting NJ polls, we need to look at how the campaigns are affecting the favorable/unfavorable numbers and people’s perceptions of the candidates, this will be an indicator of potential voting behavior come November. It is much easier for people to take a favorable or unfavorable view of a candidate than to say they will vote for him (of course, 25% haven’t taken any view in the FDU poll, so these voters still haven’t made up their minds on that question.) If by late September the Corzine campaign continues to struggle to move Christie’s numbers more (though they have done a pretty good job of moving them thus far), then, again, there will be some cause for alarm.

So far, I am sticking by my analysis. In the next month, people need to concentrate on voter perception, not the horse race. Come October, the election will be closer, people will be more forced to make a ‘real’ decision about the election (where their perceptions of the candidates will matter), and hopefully Democrats will come back to Corzine pushing him over Christie and putting him back into Trenton.

For the full Quinnipiac Poll, click here

For the full FDU Poll, click here

Why Corzine can (and will) win in 2009

The Democracy Corp poll released on Thursday finally puts Corzine in the race for Governor; however, after reviewing the numbers, Corzine might not be in as much trouble as many think (click here for link.) Doing a simple exit poll analysis, it is quite clear that Corzine is losing amongst three key constituent groups – Liberals, Democrats, and Young People.

That’s right – key Democratic voters, it seems, are not supporting Corzine at the same levels they supported either Obama or Senator Robert Mendez in 2008 and 2006, respectively. Of course, this raises an essential problem for the Corzine campaign, but one that is easily remedied, by concentrating resources on core supporters who are accessible, open to Corzine’s message, and, most importantly, easier to persuade than Independent voters.

Based on 2006 exit polls (click here for link) and the recently released Democracy Corps poll, if Liberals, Moderates, and Conservatives were to vote the same way in 2009 as they did in 2006, Corzine would end up beating Christie 50.4% to 47.06%. In 2006, 87% of Liberals supported Senator Menendez; however, now only 74% support Corzine. Even with the shift in affiliation observed from 2006 to the Democracy Corp poll, with 11% more conservatives, Corzine still wins if he can bring voting levels up to 2006 standards. Actually, even if only Liberals vote the same in 2009 as they did in 2006 (and the Moderates and Conservatives vote as they say they will in the Democracy Corp poll), Corzine still ends up eking out a victory 44.91% to 43.27%. While not a mandate or stunning victory, it still secures Corzine’s place in the Governor’s mansion.

Again, the same trend is seen in how Democrats, Independents and Republicans are voting. Currently, only 77% of Democrats say they will vote for Corzine, while 92% voted for Menendez in 2006 and 89% voted for President Obama in 2008. If Corzine can get 90% of Democrats to vote for him (a similar level to 2006 and 2008), he will beat Christie by almost four points – 46.77% to 42.99%. Now, in each of these estimates, there has still been about 5 to 10 percentage points on the table, but that is the range that Independent Chris Daggert is coming in at – there is no need to win half the votes to win the election, a plurality will put Corzine back in Trenton for four more years. And, by convincing Liberals and Democrats to come out for Corzine, he can defeat Christie.

The most striking group that lacks support for Governor Corzine is, by far, young people (18 to 39 year olds.) In the Democracy Corp poll, only 37% say they will vote for Corzine. While exit polls don’t do their age range in such a way, in both 2006 and 2008 at least 57% of voters aged 44 and younger voted Democrat. What is even more interesting is that this same group overwhelmingly approves of the job President Obama is doing in Washington. Obama’s favorability score in the Democracy Corp poll is 59.9 (out of 100) among 18 to 39 year olds. If Corzine can reverse this trend and have 55% of young people (18-39 year olds) vote Corzine, he will beat Christie 45.03 to 43.11%. Here again it is clear that if Corzine can get three core Democratic groups to vote for him at similar levels as 2006 and 2008, he can beat Christie, not necessary in a landslide, but a convincing solid win.

Moving forward, then, two things become abundantly clear. First, the Corzine campaign needs to use its outreach and field operations to contact and persuade the standard Democratic voters. Voter contact (direct mail, canvasses, and calls) to these key Democratic constituents will increase their support for Corzine and, as we have seen above, lead the Governor to victory. Secondly, the campaign should continue to capitalize on the popularity of Obama. Even as many polls put his popularity around 50% nation-wide, among these key groups in NJ, he is still extremely popular. These groups are more apt not only to follow the President but also listen to his message. If that message happens to be reasons to vote for Corzine, they are much more likely than other voters to hear the message and put it in the mix when deciding whom to vote for in 2009. By focusing energy and money on these three crucial groups and using the popularity of President Obama, Corzine can increase his numbers among these three critical groups that he needs in order to maintain the Governor’s mansion.

Lastly, if we quickly revisit history, we will find a similar trend. In late August and early September of 2006, many polls put Thomas Kean, Jr. ahead of Senator Menendez. Looking back at a poll conducted in late August of 2006 by Farleigh Dickinson university, Menendez had similar low levels of support among Democrats and Liberals that Corzine has today (click here for link.) However, when it came closer to the election and time to really make a decision, most of these voters, as we know from the exit polls, went with Menendez. For whatever reason, New Jersey Liberals and Democrats seem to like to consider other candidates before the end of October rolls around and they decide to vote Democrat.

This same shift might well happen again in 2009, and if Corzine focuses his attention and energy on these groups, it is more likely to happen, and he is more likely to remain in Trenton.

For the 2008 Presidential Exit Polls in New Jersey, please click here.

Follow Up: Corzine gaining, seems fast enough

Just a quick follow up on yesterday's post. Today, Democracy Corps released a poll that puts Corzine within striking distance of Chrisite. He now leads Governor Corzine 43 to 41%. If this weren't bad enough, my hypothesis about President Obama remains true in New Jersey, with 55% of voters viewing him 'warmly' (aka favorably) in New Jersey - the highest rating among the candidates for Governor and the political parties. His influence in the race could push Corzine to over take Chrisite in the next few polls we see.

Also, an article in the Newark Star-Ledgar that came out today pointed to the same Quinnipiac poll I talked about yesterday that showed taxes (and property taxes specifically) as the most important issue to voters. The Ledgar asks why neither candidate is addressing the issue. For Corzine, he is strongest when he is painting Christie as a hypocrite and advocating his economic plan - it is difficult for an incumbent to tout plans on property taxes when, in the eyes of the voters, he has not done much to relieve their pain in the last four years. For Christie, the more marred in turmoil and scandal he gets, and the more the Corzine campaigns continues its successful attacks, the less credible he will be to unveil any plan for property taxes - the voters will not trust his plan, not matter how good it is. And, even if he does, the Corzine campaign only need use his weak stance on ethics reform in his past political career to continue to paint Christie as a politician who talks the talk but won't and can't walk the walk. The issue is a non-starter for both candidates, which is why it isn't being brought up. In many ways the economy can be a stand in for taxes in this election, so by emphasizing his economic credentials and performance, Corzine will do well with voters concerned about their high taxes - taxes don't seem so high if people can get secure well paying jobs.

More to come this weekend, hopefully.

For the results of the Democracy Corps poll, click here.

For the full Star-Ledgar article, click here

Christie (R-NJ) ahead by 10pts, but there is still hope for Corzine (D-NJ)

To view poll and commentary from Quinnipiac University, please click here

A newly poll released by Quinnipiac University on June 10^th shows that New Jersey’s unpopular Governor Corzine is down by 10 points to former US Attorney General and Republican Gubernatorial Candidate Chris Christie. New Jersey is one of only two states this November that will hold elections for governor (the other being Virginia…I will have a post up on that race soon.) These two races are bound to be seen as a litmus test for the Democratic Party’s strength in the 2010 midterm elections. Corzine’s unpopularity, New Jersey’s fiscal crisis, and the general state of the economy do not go in Corzine’s favor, but there is still hope for this former Goldman Sachs CEO turned Senator turned Governor.

Governor Jon Corzine: Corzine came into the governor’s office in New Jersey with big ideas and a business background ready to turn Trenton on its head. For better or worse, it has not worked out the way he planned. In this June 10^th poll, Corzine’s net favorability is –18% and –35% among independents, a key group to reelection in New Jersey. If this weren’t bad enough, his approval rating is one point above its lowest point, with only 36% of respondents approving of the job Corzine is doing. And, again, Independents put his net approval rating at –36%, which is not a good sign for the Governor. To make matters worse, when asked if New Jersey has gotten ‘better or worse’ since Corzine took office, even Democrats by over a 2 to 1 margin say that things have gotten worse – independents have a margin of 11 to 1.

Personally, Corzine performs consistently, but not the way he, probably, wants to. Though 55% say that he has ‘strong leadership qualities’ and 48% of independents (a plurality) say he possess these traits, only 42% of all respondents and only 36% of independents believe Corzine is ‘honest and trustworthy.’ This sentiment exists despite the fact that Corzine is not under investigation and has had very few hiccups regarding transparency and trustworthiness (if a New Jersey politician hasn’t been indicted, he is trustworthy.) And, when it comes to caring about people ‘like you’ only 43% believe he does. This hurts even more because 50% feel his wealth (a topic Christie has already brought up in advertisements, see here) makes him less able to understand the needs of ‘average New Jersey residents.’ Further, when it comes to the issues (the economy), voters overwhelmingly feel that Christie will handle the situation much better than Corzine – the worst performance being property taxes, where 52% of respondents and 53% of independents believe Christie will do a better job lowering taxes, the only category where Christie polls higher than 50% on the comparison.

Lastly, when it comes to reelection, the Governor has his work cut out for him. 55% of respondents believe that Corzine does not deserve to be reelected, and 64% of independents do not think Corzine should be reelected.

Chris Christie: Christie’s 10 point lead does translate into high favorability and approval; however, these numbers are “soft” and if Corzine manages his campaign correctly, these numbers will only hold in the present.

Christie’s net favorability among all respondents registers at +20% and among independents it is +25%. However, 46% of respondents and 45% of independents say that they have not heard enough about Christie to make a decision – this makes these favorability scores relatively soft because only those ‘well-informed’ have yet to make up their mind. Almost half of the electorate still has to decide. When it comes to Christie’s character attributes, he scores in the mid to high 40’s on ‘strong leadership’ ‘honesty and trustworthiness’ and ‘cares about the people and their problems.’ Moreover, unlike Corzine, who 52% of voters find cold and businesslike, 33% find Christie warm and friendly, compared to 25% who do not. Again, these numbers highlight the vast amount of voters who have yet to make their minds up about Christie. This should play into the Governor’s hands, if used correctly.

Issues: Again, this race will be primarily about the economy and taxes. 45% of respondents say that the most important problem facing New Jersey is taxes (with 31% pinpointing property taxes.) Moreover, 24% of voters believe the economic situation is the most important problem facing New Jersey, with 14% of all voters believing unemployment is. These two issues will be key in the election. As seen previously, Christie outperforms Corzine on a comparison about who will do better dealing with property taxes and the economy, and the comparison Christie scores over 50% on is property taxes, which is the largest issue according to voters.

In a state so close to New York City and Philidelphia, the economy, jobs, and taxes, will be key. Christie has already come out with internet banners reminding New Jersey voters that NJ has the highest tax rate in the country – Christie is on message and understands what the voters want – Corzine needs to get on board as well.

Corzine Strategy: Corzine is very weak, and, unless the economy turns around in the next few months, he is unlikely to get much of a boost from his campaign. However, being 10 points down with over 5 months of campaigning left does not mean Corzine is out. Here are a few steps, based on these numbers, the Corzine camp should take:

1. Attack Christie – Increase his name recognition but also increase his negatives
• The Corzine team has already begun this with its ads (see here), but it needs to continue to hammer Christie. From May to June, Christie dropped the number of respondents that hadn’t heard of him by 8%; however, only 3% when into the favorable column – this ratio is clearly helping Corzine and increased negative ads will only increase this ratio in Corzine’s favor.
2. Avoid taxes – Challenge Christie on economy, jobs, and budget
• Corzine performs very poorly on taxes, and, generally, Republicans poll better on that issue. While Corzine must address the tax issue, he cannot get bogged down in the issue.
• Presenting his economic plan to voters (and using President Obama to do this, who has a 68% approval rating (65% with independents)) will help him on the economy and pinpointing job creation will also help the Governor. Christie has avoided this issue. Why? – it is probably a weak issue for him that he cannot talk about, especially if it means he has to bash the Obama stimulus package. If Corzine addresses the issue, he will increase his numbers and can use this to tie the administration into the campaign
• The budget is a problem, but there are two solutions. First, only 28% of voters approve of the State Legislature’s job performance, which Corzine can use to shift more of the budget blame onto them. Secondly, Corzine needs to make the budget ‘local.’ Wherever he is, Corzine needs to highlight how the State budget cuts can and will effect communities and how Christie’s plan will hurt them even more. The comparison is essential and will help increase Corzine’s polling on the comparison questions.
3. Highlight Christie’s pay-to-play promises
• Ties into item 1
4. Get more debates and make sure Corzine wins
• Debates will show Corzine in contrast to Christie, and, if he can successfully win among independents, he will be able to switch them in comparison questions and, ultimately, vote.

Overall, Corzine and Co. have a long road ahead of them, but with Democrats riding high, especially in New Jersey, Corzine can still be successful if he stops Christie’s momentum and begins to address the issues at hand.