For the Huffington Post article and the RNC poll, click here
Cynics are often leery of polls and pollsters – believing they are mechanisms used by politicians to create inoffensive sound bites and policy that will get them and keep them elected. Usually this is not the case – polls are used to inform politicians where they are with the public and what aspects of their plan/policy needs to be emphasized, whether the electorate is informed about them and their ideas and, subsequently, the best message to use to inform them. They are not entirely evil.
However, the Huffington Post reports about an RNC poll that is just that – evil. Democratic polls on healthcare (click here for Democracy Corps’ poll) concentrate on the President’s plan and what aspects of that plan Americans support and which they might need more explanation on before they are convinced will create a better healthcare plan. The RNC poll, on the other hand, concerns itself with one focus – defeating Obamacare.
One line of the recommendations based on the polling data is especially stunning. As Sam Stein reports, the strategist at the RNC concluded, “If Obama is allowed to sell this…he wins.” Winning and losing might be appropriate terms when dealing with elections, but not with proposed reforms of the healthcare system. Here, it should not be about winning but about enacting the best reforms in order to insure that Americans have access to the best healthcare in the world while not breaking the budget. Michael Steele, apparently, is only concerned with beating the President – shameful!
All of this aside, let’s take a look at what the RNC poll says about healthcare and what it means for the Democrats moving forward.
(Note: the poll was conducted between June 15-17, 2009, thus the results are somewhat outdated; however, the messaging aspects of the poll are still somewhat relevant as we move into August without a healthcare bill. Another note, the poll segments the population into Democrats, Independents, Republicans, and ‘Ticketsplitters.’ While I have some idea what they might be referring to, without the full data, I will not discuss this segment.)
Findings and Insights: Disregarding approval ratings, favorability, and generic congressional ballot numbers (they are now over a month old) there is still some interesting gems hidden in this poll. First off, when asked if people would prefer a Congressional candidate that is a ‘check and balance’ on the President versus one that will help Obama with his agenda, 50% prefer the former (61% among independents.) With more than a year to go before the midterms, positioning candidates as checks on a popular President might be a successful strategy, especially if the President’s popularity keeps supporters home from the polls.
Turning to the healthcare debate, 51% of respondents say their biggest concern, when it comes to healthcare, is costs while only 20% say access and 6% say quality. Further, 59% (62% among independents) support the government having an active role in lowering the cost of healthcare, but not a government-run system (only 32% support this notion.) While Americans are split 56-44 on whether America has the best healthcare in the world, an overwhelming majority (70%) believe the system is in need of reform. And, when it comes to that reform 49% say they trust the Democrats to fix the system, whereas only 29% of respondents trust the Republicans to fix it.
Americans yearn for reform to healthcare, but want the costs to be controlled and do not want the government to run it. As House Democrats and the President look for ways to offset the costs of their healthcare plan, the faster they can show the public that it will be budget neutral, the faster they will gain support. Additionally, if they can emphasis that the public plan is not government-run healthcare but, instead, a system that keeps health insurance companies honest, they will win support on that side of the debate as well.
Public Opinion on Obamacare Specifics: 88% of Americans support making ‘quality healthcare coverage affordable and accessible to every America.’ Further, 71% support forcing insurance companies to cover Americans regardless of pre-existing conditions. And, when it comes to helping small businesses provide healthcare to their employees, an impressive 79% of Americans is in support of this aspect of Obamacare.
When it comes to what Obama is proposing, Americans are if full support; however, the devil is in the details here. If the President can get this accomplished without increasing the deficient, then he will, in the words of the RNC, ‘win.’
Messaging: Especially because Obamacare will not get through the House or Senate until after the August recess, messaging will be especially important – President Obama and his ‘opponents’ will have a month to move public opinion in their corner. The RNC’s poll focuses on messaging we have seen them using in the recent debates and, probably, will continue to use. One of the most powerful messages, that over half of Americans ‘strong agree’ with, is that Americans should not be forced into a government-run system where they will loose their current coverage and choice of doctor. An even more powerful message, which 77% of Americans agree with (57% strongly agreeing), concerns turning healthcare into a bureaucracy similar to the IRS and the DMV. Lastly, the most unfavorable message for Obamacare concerns the costs, which, when quoted at ‘over a trillion dollars’ makes 65% of Americans less favorable towards Obama’s plan. Summing up, Republicans are telling Americans Obamacare will drop them from their current coverage with their current flexible choices, create a system as loathed as the DMV (which isn’t even a federal agency), and will cost each taxpayer over $7,000.
These are powerful messages that score very well. If Democrats want to sway public opinion, they must overcome these messages by emphasizing that reform will mean getting to keep your current coverage (if you want to), decreased health insurance costs because the government will create more competition and more competition drives prices down, and that the plan will be budget neutral or save money in the long run (this, of course, still needs to be worked out in the final bills in the House and Senate, unfortunately.)
Democratic counter messaging: From a messaging basis, it is possible to confront the Republican attacks. The RNC poll has people split within the margin of error (2.9%) over support of Obamacare after they hear a description. This means there is much work to be done if public opinion will turn in the President’s favor; however, it is possible. Taken apart, 58% of Americans support creating a government plan that will compete with private insurers. Democrats have to stress the competition and the healthcare exchange that will provide people with ample information about all available plans – a market, which creates competition and will drive prices down. On universality, 57% of Americans support this notion of Obamacare – this works to counter Republican attacks of dropping people from their plan. Democrats can confidently say that in order to insure everyone (which has majority support) government needs to assist in creating a system and helping those who need the support (whether it be the poor or small business.)
63% of Americans do not support the government ‘setting prices for services and deciding what treatments it will and will not cover.’ This, of course, is not the case – if Democrats can stress quality medicine where doctors are compensated based on merit and not the number of tests they perform, this bleak figure can be overcome. If Democrats can frame this situation in a ‘merit pay’ argument (compensation for better care and not more care) then Americans will get behind Obamacare.
When it comes to ‘fining’ companies that do not provide health insurance or raising taxes and cutting Medicare to pay for this reform, 54% and 71%, respectfully, oppose this portion of the President’s plan. However, while these aspects of the plan have not yet been set in stone, Democrats need to do all that is necessary to cut costs – even if some taxes need to be raised to pay for healthcare, Democrats must stress creating budget neutrality and the reform paying for itself in reduced costs (both in Medicare and in general.) While Democrats do not have the strongest position here, especially in light of recent CBO scores, they can and must confront the increased tax argument Republicans are bound to throw them – tiny tax increases are a small price to pay to keep healthcare reform from increasing the deficit.
Lastly, 59% of respondents do not believe President Obama when he says that health care reform will be budget neutral. This, thus, makes it an even bigger priority and, once established, needs to be emphasized not only by Democrats but also by touting out experts to reassure the American public of the reform’s budget neutrality. Having this message come from people that appear non-partisan will go a long way in convincing the public that reform will fulfill the President’s budget pledge.
Conclusion: In any reform battle, the status quo usually has the better position; however, Democrats can successfully counter the Republican attack machine. By emphasizing that a government plan will compete with private insurance to reduce cost, create competition, and produce transparency will counter attacks about the government-run system. Stressing ‘merit pay’ for quality care over the quantity and complexity of care will counter the RNC’s attempts to paint Obamacare as having bureaucrats dictate care. And, lastly, budget neutrality must be achieved in policy and repeated over and over again to the American public by experts that appear non-partisan. If the Democrats can successfully do this, the RNC will not beat Obama and the real winners will be the millions of Americans who live in fear of being dropped from their healthcare plan or slipping into bankruptcy because of one illness. If they don’t, Americans will be the real losers in this debate – stuck with an inadequate healthcare system for the greatest nation in the world.
