For the full polling data from Democracy Corps, please click here
To read Stan Greenberg's article in The New Republic, please click here
About a week ago, I posted Stan Greenberg’s piece in The New Republic. Now, let’s take a look at Mr. Greenberg’s numbers and the New York Times numbers to get a sense of where the healthcare debate is and where it should be heading.
Just as Stan Greenberg wrote, the numbers from 1993 to 2009 haven’t changed much. But, instead of concentrating on the similarities to the past (if you want that, please see Mr. Greenberg’s piece), let’s look at the present and, more importantly, what should be done moving forward.
Current Situation: While only 7% of Americans believe that Healthcare is the most important issue facing America right now, according to a recent NY Times poll, the Obama administration seems to be concentrating what little energy they have, while wrangling this beast of an economy back to ‘normalcy’, on healthcare.
A plurality of Americans, 48%, feel that ‘major changes’ are needed to the insurance healthcare system in America. Further, 58% say they are dissatisfied with the current healthcare system (43% say they are very dissatisfied and every group, except seniors, are either dissatisfied or split.) However, while Americans are dissatisfied with the current system generally, 72% are satisfied with their health insurance. This fact, not too unusual in American Public Opinion, will make this issue difficult for the administration – any change they propose may be seen by 72% of Americans as a break away from the satisfied service they are already getting from their insurance company. And, generally, people are willing to except the beast they have, as opposed to the beast they don’t know, so the administration has a tough sell ahead.
When it comes to the ‘nuts and bolts’ of reform, the nation is split over their concerns. 48% say they are more concerned that the current system will increase costs too much and become out of control than with the government taking over healthcare and reducing quality. Meanwhile, 46% of respondents believe the opposite is true. So while Americans are split, Independent voters are more concerned with the government taking over healthcare by a 13% margin.
Americans feel that the healthcare system in this country needs to be reformed, while leaving their own insurance plan alone. What’s more, while they feel the situation needs to be fixed, they are split over the government taking over and controlling the system and the current system becoming too unwieldy for proper management.
Goals and Concerns: American’s are conflicted over the process of reform, but are somewhat more clear on the goals they hope such reform will achieve. 39% (the largest percent of respondents) says that reducing costs should be the goal of any reform. And, while that ranks the highest, expanding coverage to children (33%), preventing insurance companies from denying coverage because of a pre-existing condition (31%), guaranteeing no one will lose coverage if they are sick, move, et cetera (29%), and expanding coverage to those without insurance (28%) are also on the priority list. Overall, Americans want reform to reduce cost, protect their current coverage, and expand coverage to more Americans.
When it comes to Americans concerns, they are most concerned with a Government run system restricting choice and becoming costly. 30% of respondents say their largest concern is that healthcare decisions will no longer be made by them, but by the government and 27% say that they are concerned that they will no longer be able to choose their own doctor. Meanwhile, 24% are concerned with an increase in taxes because of the reform.
Americans want costs to be reduced, coverage expanded and protected while not creating a Government run system that limits their choice and does not increases taxes – simply put, they want their current insurance expanded to everyone and guaranteed to them all at no additional charge.
Messaging and Moving Forward: 44% of likely voters favor President Obama’s healthcare proposal, while 18% do not have an opinion – a huge constituency. In a recent NY Times poll, 44% say they approve of the way the President is handling healthcare, but 22% don’t have enough information to make an opinion. With such large numbers of American’s without an opinion on what will continue to dominant the political arena, there is much room to change public opinion.
After a ‘critical argument’ is presented to voters under 65, the number in favor of the President’s plan increases from 47% to 55% while the number opposed increases to 40% from 36%. In the ratio, the President is winning when the argument takes place 2 to 1. However, to make sure that this ratio remains strong and splits the 18% without an opinion on the President’s plan to being in favor of the President, the right elements and messages must be used.
With over 84% support, Americans want to be given of choice between keeping their own health insurance or switching to a public plan, which is front and center in the President’s plan (he just has to spread the word.) 77 to 74% (depending on how the question is worded) support employers being required to either cover their employees or contribute to a fund to help them pay for coverage, with small business being given tax credits for such participation. Third on the list of highest supported initiatives is a potential plan is the requirement that insurance companies cover everyone at the same rate, regardless of pre-existing conditions, with 68% of respondents supporting it.
When it comes to positive messages that convince respondents to support the President’s plan, stressing the security and ‘peace of mind’ the plan offers scores at 72% convincing, while creating more choices for people comes in at 70%. No surprises there. These messages emphasis the goals Americans want out of healthcare reform. Further, when asked what ‘stood out’ about the positive aspects of the arguments respondents heard, universal coverage, affordability, and choice garnered 34, 22, and 15%, respectively.
On the negative side, “will force Americans to wait in line for care” and “puts Washington bureaucrats in charge of healthcare” scored 61 and 57%, respectively. And, when it comes to the worries people have the Obama health plan, the government’s involvement and increased costs are, by far, the largest with 52 and 38%, respectively.
So far, we have seen the Republican attack machine come out and say, over and over and over again, that the President’s plan will put Washington in charge of which doctor you see and what care you receive. If President Obama and his team are to be successful, they will have to emphasize increased coverage, choice, and how their plan will lower costs. Most importantly, they need to rebuke the myth that a man in Washington will pick the care a woman in California receives. If Democrats can successfully stress their strengths while negating the largest Republican attack (government control will be inefficient and reduce choice), than public opinion, at least, will be on the President’s side. If not, than Stan Greenberg might be right in thinking 1993 might repeat itself.
Note: All polling numbers are from the Democracy Corps poll cited above, except where the New York Times is cited. For the complete poll from The New York Times, please click here.
