Paterson (D-NY) has steep battle ahead of him, perhaps too steep

For the New York Times article on the poll, click here

For complete polling data, click here

A recent poll released by the New York Times, Cornell University, and NY1 finds that New York Governor David Paterson will have a very difficult time digging himself out of his current whole in time for the 2010 primary and general election season.

David Paterson: Paterson’s numbers are bleak, with 54% of New Yorkers disapproving of the way he is handling his job as Governor and 50% having an unfavorable opinion of the Governor. More than that, 71% feel that New York State is going in the wrong direction. Paterson’s approval is so low that, when asked to name ‘the best thing the Governor has done’ the highest issue is the same-sex marriage bill with 7% of respondents indicating it is the best thing Paterson has done. However, 5% of respondents claim it is the worst thing Paterson has done since becoming Governor – obviously this is a divisive issue for a Governor who voters don’t see as having accomplished much. When asked about the ‘worst thing the Governor has done’ a huge 17% of New Yorkers respond by stating increases in taxes.

When it comes to the future, New Yorkers strongly feel that the Governor should concentrate his energy on the economy (16%), unemployment (19%), and taxes (16%) – with education (9%) and health care (8%) being secondary concerns. When it comes to ‘caring about the needs of people’ Paterson performs surprisingly well for such a disliked Governor, with 56% of people believing that he does care about their needs and problems. However, when it comes to handling a crisis, bringing jobs to New York, balancing the budget, or reducing property taxes the Governor performs poorly with over 50% of respondents believing he cannot do those things (with the exception of balancing the budget, where 46% believe he cannot while 44% believe he can.)

Lastly, when it comes to reelection, Paterson has a long tumultuous road ahead of him. When asked if Governor Paterson deserves another term as Governor, 71% of New Yorkers believe that it is time for a new person – not good news for a Governor who has an economic crisis and legislative coup to deal with.

Moving Forward: New York insiders have been expecting a primary challenge to David Paterson, and these polling numbers show that he is very vulnerable to an attack – from within his own party and from the Republicans. One likely primary challenger may be Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. Cuomo has a 68% approval rating and a 57% net approval rating. Further, Cuomo’s favorability is 56% and has been growing at a ratio of 4 to 1, which, if it continues, will substantially increase his favorables once a campaign is in full swing.

For Paterson, avoiding a primary challenger and holding onto the Governor’s office will entail a lot of work; however, he has over a year and a half to turn it around. In the next year and a half, Paterson needs to focus on the economy, unemployment, and taxes – these are perennial issues that are even more relevant in this economic downturn. If he can prove to the voters of New York that he is doing substantial work and improving New York’s economy, his approval will, hopefully, turnaround. While doing this work, gay marriage needs to be in the legislature and the Governor needs to let them hash it out there – with the coup, the bill will, probably, be tied down for quite some time. A divisive issue like gay marriage will only hurt this already weak Governor in a general election. Further, the coup could come as a help to Governor Paterson if he positions it correctly. He needs to show voters the difficulty with working with a legislature as fragile as this one and how they are hindering his ability to get things done. While this won’t completely turn around his future, it may help.

However, if Paterson continues to under perform for New Yorkers, he will surely be out of the Governors mansion by 2011.