Christie (R-NJ) ahead by 10pts, but there is still hope for Corzine (D-NJ)

To view poll and commentary from Quinnipiac University, please click here

A newly poll released by Quinnipiac University on June 10^th shows that New Jersey’s unpopular Governor Corzine is down by 10 points to former US Attorney General and Republican Gubernatorial Candidate Chris Christie. New Jersey is one of only two states this November that will hold elections for governor (the other being Virginia…I will have a post up on that race soon.) These two races are bound to be seen as a litmus test for the Democratic Party’s strength in the 2010 midterm elections. Corzine’s unpopularity, New Jersey’s fiscal crisis, and the general state of the economy do not go in Corzine’s favor, but there is still hope for this former Goldman Sachs CEO turned Senator turned Governor.

Governor Jon Corzine: Corzine came into the governor’s office in New Jersey with big ideas and a business background ready to turn Trenton on its head. For better or worse, it has not worked out the way he planned. In this June 10^th poll, Corzine’s net favorability is –18% and –35% among independents, a key group to reelection in New Jersey. If this weren’t bad enough, his approval rating is one point above its lowest point, with only 36% of respondents approving of the job Corzine is doing. And, again, Independents put his net approval rating at –36%, which is not a good sign for the Governor. To make matters worse, when asked if New Jersey has gotten ‘better or worse’ since Corzine took office, even Democrats by over a 2 to 1 margin say that things have gotten worse – independents have a margin of 11 to 1.

Personally, Corzine performs consistently, but not the way he, probably, wants to. Though 55% say that he has ‘strong leadership qualities’ and 48% of independents (a plurality) say he possess these traits, only 42% of all respondents and only 36% of independents believe Corzine is ‘honest and trustworthy.’ This sentiment exists despite the fact that Corzine is not under investigation and has had very few hiccups regarding transparency and trustworthiness (if a New Jersey politician hasn’t been indicted, he is trustworthy.) And, when it comes to caring about people ‘like you’ only 43% believe he does. This hurts even more because 50% feel his wealth (a topic Christie has already brought up in advertisements, see here) makes him less able to understand the needs of ‘average New Jersey residents.’ Further, when it comes to the issues (the economy), voters overwhelmingly feel that Christie will handle the situation much better than Corzine – the worst performance being property taxes, where 52% of respondents and 53% of independents believe Christie will do a better job lowering taxes, the only category where Christie polls higher than 50% on the comparison.

Lastly, when it comes to reelection, the Governor has his work cut out for him. 55% of respondents believe that Corzine does not deserve to be reelected, and 64% of independents do not think Corzine should be reelected.

Chris Christie: Christie’s 10 point lead does translate into high favorability and approval; however, these numbers are “soft” and if Corzine manages his campaign correctly, these numbers will only hold in the present.

Christie’s net favorability among all respondents registers at +20% and among independents it is +25%. However, 46% of respondents and 45% of independents say that they have not heard enough about Christie to make a decision – this makes these favorability scores relatively soft because only those ‘well-informed’ have yet to make up their mind. Almost half of the electorate still has to decide. When it comes to Christie’s character attributes, he scores in the mid to high 40’s on ‘strong leadership’ ‘honesty and trustworthiness’ and ‘cares about the people and their problems.’ Moreover, unlike Corzine, who 52% of voters find cold and businesslike, 33% find Christie warm and friendly, compared to 25% who do not. Again, these numbers highlight the vast amount of voters who have yet to make their minds up about Christie. This should play into the Governor’s hands, if used correctly.

Issues: Again, this race will be primarily about the economy and taxes. 45% of respondents say that the most important problem facing New Jersey is taxes (with 31% pinpointing property taxes.) Moreover, 24% of voters believe the economic situation is the most important problem facing New Jersey, with 14% of all voters believing unemployment is. These two issues will be key in the election. As seen previously, Christie outperforms Corzine on a comparison about who will do better dealing with property taxes and the economy, and the comparison Christie scores over 50% on is property taxes, which is the largest issue according to voters.

In a state so close to New York City and Philidelphia, the economy, jobs, and taxes, will be key. Christie has already come out with internet banners reminding New Jersey voters that NJ has the highest tax rate in the country – Christie is on message and understands what the voters want – Corzine needs to get on board as well.

Corzine Strategy: Corzine is very weak, and, unless the economy turns around in the next few months, he is unlikely to get much of a boost from his campaign. However, being 10 points down with over 5 months of campaigning left does not mean Corzine is out. Here are a few steps, based on these numbers, the Corzine camp should take:

1. Attack Christie – Increase his name recognition but also increase his negatives
• The Corzine team has already begun this with its ads (see here), but it needs to continue to hammer Christie. From May to June, Christie dropped the number of respondents that hadn’t heard of him by 8%; however, only 3% when into the favorable column – this ratio is clearly helping Corzine and increased negative ads will only increase this ratio in Corzine’s favor.
2. Avoid taxes – Challenge Christie on economy, jobs, and budget
• Corzine performs very poorly on taxes, and, generally, Republicans poll better on that issue. While Corzine must address the tax issue, he cannot get bogged down in the issue.
• Presenting his economic plan to voters (and using President Obama to do this, who has a 68% approval rating (65% with independents)) will help him on the economy and pinpointing job creation will also help the Governor. Christie has avoided this issue. Why? – it is probably a weak issue for him that he cannot talk about, especially if it means he has to bash the Obama stimulus package. If Corzine addresses the issue, he will increase his numbers and can use this to tie the administration into the campaign
• The budget is a problem, but there are two solutions. First, only 28% of voters approve of the State Legislature’s job performance, which Corzine can use to shift more of the budget blame onto them. Secondly, Corzine needs to make the budget ‘local.’ Wherever he is, Corzine needs to highlight how the State budget cuts can and will effect communities and how Christie’s plan will hurt them even more. The comparison is essential and will help increase Corzine’s polling on the comparison questions.
3. Highlight Christie’s pay-to-play promises
• Ties into item 1
4. Get more debates and make sure Corzine wins
• Debates will show Corzine in contrast to Christie, and, if he can successfully win among independents, he will be able to switch them in comparison questions and, ultimately, vote.

Overall, Corzine and Co. have a long road ahead of them, but with Democrats riding high, especially in New Jersey, Corzine can still be successful if he stops Christie’s momentum and begins to address the issues at hand.