Paterson (D-NY) has steep battle ahead of him, perhaps too steep

For the New York Times article on the poll, click here

For complete polling data, click here

A recent poll released by the New York Times, Cornell University, and NY1 finds that New York Governor David Paterson will have a very difficult time digging himself out of his current whole in time for the 2010 primary and general election season.

David Paterson: Paterson’s numbers are bleak, with 54% of New Yorkers disapproving of the way he is handling his job as Governor and 50% having an unfavorable opinion of the Governor. More than that, 71% feel that New York State is going in the wrong direction. Paterson’s approval is so low that, when asked to name ‘the best thing the Governor has done’ the highest issue is the same-sex marriage bill with 7% of respondents indicating it is the best thing Paterson has done. However, 5% of respondents claim it is the worst thing Paterson has done since becoming Governor – obviously this is a divisive issue for a Governor who voters don’t see as having accomplished much. When asked about the ‘worst thing the Governor has done’ a huge 17% of New Yorkers respond by stating increases in taxes.

When it comes to the future, New Yorkers strongly feel that the Governor should concentrate his energy on the economy (16%), unemployment (19%), and taxes (16%) – with education (9%) and health care (8%) being secondary concerns. When it comes to ‘caring about the needs of people’ Paterson performs surprisingly well for such a disliked Governor, with 56% of people believing that he does care about their needs and problems. However, when it comes to handling a crisis, bringing jobs to New York, balancing the budget, or reducing property taxes the Governor performs poorly with over 50% of respondents believing he cannot do those things (with the exception of balancing the budget, where 46% believe he cannot while 44% believe he can.)

Lastly, when it comes to reelection, Paterson has a long tumultuous road ahead of him. When asked if Governor Paterson deserves another term as Governor, 71% of New Yorkers believe that it is time for a new person – not good news for a Governor who has an economic crisis and legislative coup to deal with.

Moving Forward: New York insiders have been expecting a primary challenge to David Paterson, and these polling numbers show that he is very vulnerable to an attack – from within his own party and from the Republicans. One likely primary challenger may be Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. Cuomo has a 68% approval rating and a 57% net approval rating. Further, Cuomo’s favorability is 56% and has been growing at a ratio of 4 to 1, which, if it continues, will substantially increase his favorables once a campaign is in full swing.

For Paterson, avoiding a primary challenger and holding onto the Governor’s office will entail a lot of work; however, he has over a year and a half to turn it around. In the next year and a half, Paterson needs to focus on the economy, unemployment, and taxes – these are perennial issues that are even more relevant in this economic downturn. If he can prove to the voters of New York that he is doing substantial work and improving New York’s economy, his approval will, hopefully, turnaround. While doing this work, gay marriage needs to be in the legislature and the Governor needs to let them hash it out there – with the coup, the bill will, probably, be tied down for quite some time. A divisive issue like gay marriage will only hurt this already weak Governor in a general election. Further, the coup could come as a help to Governor Paterson if he positions it correctly. He needs to show voters the difficulty with working with a legislature as fragile as this one and how they are hindering his ability to get things done. While this won’t completely turn around his future, it may help.

However, if Paterson continues to under perform for New Yorkers, he will surely be out of the Governors mansion by 2011.

Voters: “Good Job Mike, But It's Time For A Change”

For the accompanying New York Times article, please click here

For the full survey results, please click here

In a recent poll released by the New York Times, Cornell University, and NY1, voters made it clear that, while they are very satisfied with Mayor Bloomberg’s performance, they want a change.

Mayor Bloomberg: With 60% of New Yorkers approving of the job Mayor Bloomberg is doing in New York, he will be trying to leverage this support into votes in November. And, with 48% of New Yorkers with a favorable view of the Mayor, it is clearly a possibility. However, there are some major concerns the Mayor will have to address. First, in a city that is over 26% black, the mayor continually underperforms with this essential constituency. While over 50% of blacks approve of Bloomberg’s performance as mayor, only 38% are favorable of the Mayor, compared to 55% of whites. Though Mayor Bloomberg’s main competition, Comptroller Thompson (D), is black, Bloomberg’s lack of appeal to blacks may carry over to other ethnic groups and affect his showing at the polls.

Secondly, when it comes to the economy (clearly a key issue in this election and one that the Mayor has already been pushing in his advertising, see here) 59% of New Yorkers believe the Mayor can do something about the economy and 67% say he can at least do something, though not a lot, to impact the economy. Further, when it comes to jobs, 64% say that the Mayor has the ability to bring jobs into New York City. If the economy takes a turn for the worse in August, September, or October, the Mayor will find it more difficult to makes his case to financially strapped voters already looking for change.

Bloomberg’s Performance: As with his approval rating, the mayor performs well on a host of different questions. While 63% of New Yorkers are still somewhat worried about getting Swine Flu, 73% were satisfied with the way the administration handled the situation and 70% were satisfied with the information they received from the administration. A good showing for an administration that constantly promotes itself as a no-nonsense business-like machine

Concerning schools, 31% of New Yorkers are satisfied with the performance of New York City Schools, which is the highest level of satisfaction recorded. Further, 37% believe that the quality of life in New York has increased since the Mayor was elected. Both issues the mayor has substantially addressed and will surely bring up in his re-election campaign.

However, there are some areas where the mayor is not performing, according to New Yorkers. When it comes to crime almost half of New Yorkers believe that it has stayed the same since the mayor took office, and 58% believe that taxes have increased since Bloomberg took office. Moreover, as a result of the MTA crisis, a plurality believes that subway and bus service has gotten worse since the Mayor’s arrival. And, 38% believe the number of affordable units in the city has decreased under the Mayor’s watch (though 37% of blacks believe that units have increased.)

Overall, the mayor has performed well in pertinent areas and the areas he is emphasizing (i.e. education.) However, New Yorkers are not entirely satisfied with his performance, and he will either have to convince voters of his successes or focus on other issues to gain votes in November.

Key Issues: This year, it is clear that the main issue in the campaign will be the economy. However, when it comes to other issues, voters find it difficult to pinpoint Bloomberg’s strong point. When asked about the ‘best’ thing Bloomberg has done in office, 8% say crime and 8% say education, which poll the highest now but are down from highs of 13% and 19% respectively in 2005. Controls spending/handles finances only receives 6% for the Mayor that came from Wall Street.

Additionally, when asked about the ‘worse’ thing Bloomberg has done in office, 11% say term limits and 9% say increased taxes, though that has remained relatively constant. And, with 55% of New Yorkers saying it is “time for a new mayor,” Bloomberg will have to convince them that he has had success in the past and will be successful in the future – so successful that change must wait.

Thompson Strategy: It is clear that the mayor has a base of support in New York and that voters believe he has done a better than average job. Still, 55% of these same New Yorkers believe it is time for a change. And with 72% of voters believing term limits to be good and 58% disapproving of the council extending term limits, Thompson may seem poised to compete with the mayor.

However, while Thompson has a net 11% favorable rating, 72% of New Yorkers have not heard enough about him to give him a rating at all. Moving forward, the Thompson campaign should focus its effort on the following:

1. Substantially increase Comptroller Thompson’s name recognition and favorable numbers
• This is especially true in the outer boroughs, as 57% of New Yorkers believe the mayor pays too much attention to Manhattan
2. Focus on Thompson’s economic work as Comptroller and that he is a change from Bloomberg with the experience to navigate through these difficult economic times
• While change is on Thompson’s side, the economy is still on the mayor’s. If the Thompson campaign can effectively neutralized the economic experience argument, than Thompson can win on the change proposition alone.
3. A rhetorical focus on change leapfrogging off of President Obama’s victory.
• The Thompson campaign needs to spin everything it presents to the voters as a change from Bloomberg. Education, which has 8% believing it is the best thing Bloomberg has done and 5% saying it is the worse thing the mayor has done, is a polarizing issue. Thompson can take this issue and talk about changing the culture of New York City’s Department of Education administration to become more ‘community friendly.’ There is no need to get negative – while Thompson can commend the mayor for all his work on the school, he can press the issue that a new person is needed to take the schools to the ‘next level.’
4. Motivate the ethnic base (especially black voters)

• It is clear from these results that Bloomberg does much better among whites than blacks. Though I do not have the results, I would assume this gap perpetuates into other ethnic categories, which Thompson should capitalize on, and allows him to continue his focus on the outer boroughs