Bringing Back Sotomayor For a Second

For the press release by Ipsos, click here

For the full poll, click here

Recently, the political pundits have cast their eyes, and pens, on the healthcare crisis and Iran; however, we are still in the midst of a Supreme Court nomination. Ipsos released a poll on June 12^th about Supreme Court Nominee Sotomayor. It wasn’t too extensive, but it says a lot.

While all subgroups (Hispanics, Democrats, Independents, and Republicans) except Republicans have net positive favorable ratings of Sotomayor, in all the subgroups but Hispanics, more than a majority has not heard enough to have an opinion. Of course, that isn’t too surprising given recent news coverage.

What is surprising is that, given the large percentage of people who don’t have an opinion about Sotomayor’s favorability, 54% of the general population believes she should be confirmed. And independents, a continually crucial subgroup, believe that she should be confirmed 41% to 19%. Even if the 40% who do not know enough to make a decision split evenly, that leaves Independents wanting Ms. Sotomayor to be confirmed 61% to 39%, hardly a small margin.

However, the most important number in the survey is a warning to Republicans who are considering a staunch challenge to Sotomayor’s nomination. When asked if the Senate Republicans “overwhelmingly oppose” Sotomayor’s nomination would you be more or less favorable towards the GOP, 24% of the population said they would be more favorable to the Republican party, while 37% said they would be less favorable – a 13% gap favoring Democrats. What is even more astonishing is that, among independents, that gap is roughly the same, becoming 14% in the Democrats favor among Independents.

So, while other issues have pushed this story aside, if Republicans fiercely challenge Sotomayor’s nomination, it can only help the Democrats on other issues. Hopefully the Republican’s aren’t reading this blog (or any other polling data) and stick it to Sotomayor – it can only help us on the other issues, where the help is needed and needed now.