New Jersey – One More Time

I’ve gotten some feedback on my last post on the NJ Governor’s race, especially concerning my exit polling analysis of the race. Since then, two ‘new’ polls have come out from Quinnipiac and Farleigh Dickinson. So, here is a quick analysis of the race as it stands according to the latest polls (though with my luck, some more polls will be released early this week and I’ll have to re-do by analysis yet again.)

Baseline results: In the Quinnipiac poll, Christie continues to leads Corzine by 47-37% with 6% undecided. Thus, according to Quinnipiac, even if Corzine were to get all the undecided voters, he would still lose 47-43%. And, there seems to be no significant trend in the multiple Quinnipiac polls taken. Of course, when it comes to Christie’s favorables, we see a net positive rating of 11%, down from a net 16% rating in early August. Corzine, on the other hand, is at a net favorable rating of –23%, down from –17% in early August (the same is true for Corzine’s approval rating.) Even more shocking in the Quinnipiac poll is Barack Obama’s approval rating, which dropped from 60% in July to 51% (though, other polls put it higher in NJ.)

The Farleigh Dickinson poll puts the horse race at 42-47% in Christie’s favor (however, Daggert gets only 1% when he has been polling over 5% in most polls, which seems strange.) In terms of favorability, Corzine has a net negative rating of 17%, whereas Christie has a net positive rating of 3% (however, 25% of respondents state that they have no opinion of Christie, which, with Corzine’s campaign constantly on attack, could only help Corzine by raising Christie’s unfavorables.) In terms of voters’ perceptions of the candidates, neither Corzine nor Christie has an advantage on being seen as ‘honest or trustworthy;” however, by 13% respondents see Christie as the candidate concerned with problems of the average person, whereas Corzine is seen as having the proper background and experience to be governor by a margin of 13%.

Overall, these polls tell us what we already know – Corzine is still down, but not out. It is a tough race and voters in New Jersey have yet to make up their minds. The next two months of campaigning will be crucial. After another two weeks, I would like to see what happens to Christie’s numbers as voters come back from summer vacation (and summer mode in general) and start really paying attention in an attempt to deicide which lever to pull in November. Corzine has a lot of ammunition, while it looks like Chrisite may be running out (but the next month will be crucial.)

Previous Analysis: My last look at this race painted the situation as quite hopeful for Corzine, because key Democratic voters (liberals, people identifying themselves as Democrats, and young people are not saying they will vote for him at equal levels as they did in 2008 or 2006.) In the Quinnipiac poll, Democrats split their vote 74-15% for Corzine. In the two past elections, almost 90% of Democrats voted for the Democrat. Further, in the FDU poll, only 73% of Democrats say they will vote for Corzine (while a huge 18% say they are voting for Christie.) Again, this is the same problem we have seen in previous polls, and if (when) the Corzine campaign starts to focus on these crucial voters (and these voters finally make a final decision) it will give the needed votes to put Corzine back in Trenton.

I would have thought that a shift would start to appear now; however, there is still plenty of time. If by mid-October these numbers of Democrat’s voting intentions are still this poor, then there will be cause for alarm in the Corzine campaign. But, New Jersey voters are notorious for taking a long time to make up their minds (I pointed out the 2006 Senate race in my last post.) For instance, in today’s Washington Post, the director of the Quinnipiac poll is quoted as saying, “New Jersey is a goofy state as far as voting goes…Jersey always makes up its mind late.” As people looking at these numbers, we just have to wait until they do.

What to look for in the next few polls: Right now, in interpreting NJ polls, we need to look at how the campaigns are affecting the favorable/unfavorable numbers and people’s perceptions of the candidates, this will be an indicator of potential voting behavior come November. It is much easier for people to take a favorable or unfavorable view of a candidate than to say they will vote for him (of course, 25% haven’t taken any view in the FDU poll, so these voters still haven’t made up their minds on that question.) If by late September the Corzine campaign continues to struggle to move Christie’s numbers more (though they have done a pretty good job of moving them thus far), then, again, there will be some cause for alarm.

So far, I am sticking by my analysis. In the next month, people need to concentrate on voter perception, not the horse race. Come October, the election will be closer, people will be more forced to make a ‘real’ decision about the election (where their perceptions of the candidates will matter), and hopefully Democrats will come back to Corzine pushing him over Christie and putting him back into Trenton.

For the full Quinnipiac Poll, click here

For the full FDU Poll, click here