Questions abound about what this decline means. Is the President exiting his ‘honeymoon’ period? Are Americans disillusioned with his handling of the economy and healthcare? Will this affect his attempts at reform on healthcare and environmental policy?
As of July 21, 2009, Real Clear Politics (RCP) puts Obama’s approval averages at 56.1 approve versus 38.6 disapprove – a 17.5% differential in favor of the President (link to averages here.) The most apparent change is an increase in those who disapprove of the President’s performance. And, while I have not examined the crosstabs, I would wager that this increase represents many independent voters and moderate republicans moving form the “don’t know” category to the “disapprove” category. If this is the case, Democrats running in 2009 (Corzine in NJ and Deeds in VA) and, possibly, in 2010 need to worry.
However, even as Independents and moderate Republicans come out of the woodwork against the President, this does not necessarily mean the President is in bad shape. Gallup has released a memo (link to memo here) showing that the President’s average approval rating in his third quarter as President exceeded his two immediate predecessors and is in line with several of his modern peers. (To view an interesting interactive chart from USA Today regarding Presidential approval ratings, click here)
Moving forward, it seems that Obama and other Democrats should be more worried about the ‘why’ when it comes to approval. According to another Gallup poll released on July 15th, of those who approve of the President’s job performance, 54% cite his leadership, while only 17% name issues as their reason. Conversely, when it comes to disapproval, 65% Americans who disapprove of the President cite issues as their primary reason for disapproval (link to memo here.) As we have seen in recent polls, many Americans support/approve of the President though they may not approve of his policies. On healthcare, for example, 49% of people approve of the job he is doing. And, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll (link to poll here), of all the items asked, only the situation in Afghanistan garners more approval than the President himself.
This, of course, suggests that the honeymoon may still be ongoing and more erosion is expected in his approval ratings as people begin to learn more about healthcare and Republicans continue to link healthcare to the ever-growing budget deficit (the lowest scoring issue at 43% approval.)
Moving forward, Democrats and the President need to keep a close eye on why people approve/disapprove of Obama and how they view the President’s performance on the issues of the day. Though it seems, at least from this observer, that the President needs to retake control of his agenda. While letting Congress deal with the details on policy might create bedfellows on Capitol Hill, it confuses most Americans and makes them unsure of what is going on in Washington. Take healthcare as an example – the President continues to talk about what he wants in healthcare, but everyday Americans are bombarded with new proposals and new scores from the CBO. They do not understand this and don’t have the time to figure it out, which makes them frustrated, confused, and, most damaging to the President, upset that the President cannot present a clear plan on what he wants. Of course, the President knows what he wants on healthcare and a myriad of other issues; it is now time for him to dictate policy to Congress and allow them to tinker with it, as opposed to the other way around. If he does this, he will not only gain leadership points but also allow citizens to judge his policy for what it is, not a hodgepodge of suggestions and proposals that come in and out of fashion in a Congressional Committee. If President Obama does this, he will accomplish what he came to Washington to do and help propel his eroding poll numbers (or, at the very least, stabilize them.) If not, he will lose control of his agenda and the support of the people who elected him.
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