As most of you are probably aware, President Obama will be addressing both houses of Congress tomorrow evening about health care reform. 56% of Americans, and 52% of Independents, say that they plan on watching the President’s speech, so when we look back on this debate, regardless of the outcome, this will, in all probability, be a big night. So, here are some thoughts on where the debate stands, what President Obama might say (based on public polling data,) and, most importantly, what to look for (in terms of polling data) after Wednesday.
The Current Environment: In the latest CBS poll on healthcare, 67% of respondents say that they are confused by the healthcare debate and plan, and a full 60% claim that President Obama has not explained his healthcare plan well enough (65% among independent voters.) Though confused, the public finds healthcare ‘important’ by a margin of 93-6% and 73% believe that healthcare reform will affect them personally, according a Pew Report. And, Americans recognize that a minor change will not create the change they think is necessary in healthcare, with 60% stating that a ‘complete overhaul’ or ‘major reform’ is needed, according to an NBC poll.
While the majority of Americans may not understand the healthcare plan and view major reform as important in general and to their families, they are split on whether they would advise their Congressperson to vote for or against the bill, with 37% voting for and 39% voting against, leaving a full 24% unsure of, at this point, what to do with healthcare reform, according to a Gallup poll. However, of those people who are unsure about healthcare reform, only 36% say it will be a ‘major factor’ in how they vote for Congress come 2010. Though Gallup does not release their crosstabs, I would wager that the ‘unsure’ group is disproportionately made up of moderates, independents, and ‘leaners,’ which means while healthcare might be an important partisan issue in 2010, it might not influence those in the middle as much as we think (in fact, if the economy rebounds or falls further, that will be a bigger issue, as it is, right now, to most Americans.)
As it stands right now, Americans are unsure about healthcare, though they are interested and will tune into the President’s speech. 28% of Independents (19% of Republicans and 23% of Democrats) are unsure of how their Congressperson should vote – though partisan, this issue needs clarification before the public really makes a decision on the issue. With President Obama’s approval hovering around 50%, his ability to take these unsure voters and create supporters will help him pass healthcare, which, in turn, would help his stalled approval numbers.
What we might hear from The President: On September 3rd, Joel Benenson (President Obama’s pollster) sent a memo to Congress with the basic premise that, when people hear about the President’s plan for healthcare, support increases. Specifically, he points to an NBC poll that, initially, puts public support for the President’s plan at 36%, with opposition at 42% (17% have no opinion initially.) However, after hearing that his plan
- Will require insurance companies to cover people with pre-existing conditions
- Mandate that most employers provide healthcare to their employees
- Provide tax-credits for lower- and middle- income families to pay for healthcare, which is offset by increased taxes on the wealthiest
Support jumps to 53% (with 43% in opposition and 4% still undecided.) If this proves nothing else, it shows that when confused Americans are told about the President’s plan, they become substantially more supportive of his program.
During the President’s address tomorrow evening, he is sure to bring up all three points, especially mandating insurance companies cover people with pre-existing conditions. Another point he will, probably, stress is an increased focus on prevention programs to catch disease early. In the most recent Kaiser poll, 63% of Americans said that such a piece of the plan was ‘very important;’ however, 32% said that the most important part is helping Americans afford healthcare insurance – stressing both should increase support for his plan.
The public option (which polls at 59% support in the Kaiser poll) will come up – it has been at the center of the recent debate and President Obama must address this point. He can do one of two things – write it off as just a piece of his plan to placate Blue Dog Democrats and moderate Republicans into passing a healthcare bill or come out fighting for it in order to build up more public approval for the plan, forcing Blue Dog’s to realize that their constituents, once they understand the offering, want a public option. There is no doubt that President Obama will address the public option, the question, which even polling data can’t address, is whether he will come out fighting for it (attempting to turn public opinion in his favor) or drop it as just a piece in order to accomplish the other parts of his healthcare agenda. Right now, it is anyone’s guess.
Lastly, he must address the fact that 48% of Americans are worried that the government might play ‘too big’ a role in deciding their care, under the President’s reform efforts. Americans’ want a system where everyone is covered and insurers cannot drop them, but they are terrified of the consequences of such a plan. In his address, Obama must say that he understands the public’s fear, but reassure them (and explain to them) that his plan will increase their choice, NOT decrease it.
Overall, tomorrow President Obama will lay out the plan he has tried to disseminate from the start, to an audience that has heard mixed things about what he truly wants his healthcare reform to look like. He should talk about requiring insurance companies (who are never popular with the American public) to cover everyone, regardless of their conditions, mandating, through various mechanisms, coverage for everyone, the public option (though the jury is out on what he will say about that), and, finally, that his plan is about putting the decisions back in the public’s hands – that with more preventative care, American’s will be healthier, but, when they have to make a decision, it will be up to them and their doctor, not a bureaucrat in Washington or administrator in New York. If he can do that, as the NBC poll shows, he can convince the undecideds (and maybe some of the decideds) to give his reform a second thought, making reform and the 2010 election much easier for him and his Democrat’s in Congress.
What to look for: After his speech, pundits and prognosticators will convene on network and cable news to proclaim success or failure – half will be correct, the other half will look awfully foolish in retrospect. But, we won’t know until Americans’ tell us. After tomorrow, look for changes in the number of undecideds in the polls regarding healthcare, especially when asked if they support President Obama’s plan. Also, look for what happens to Obama’s approval on the healthcare issue – this will be important to see if people have come around to his plan, which will affect his overall approval ratings. Lastly, look at the number of people who say they are confused about the plan. If the number remains around 65%, the President didn’t do a good job selling his plan to the public – actually, he’ll have wasted a great opportunity.
This being said, there are three potential outcomes from this speech:
- Support for Obama’s healthcare plan increases across the board and the number of undecideds decreases as the move into the support column
- Obama’s speech decreases support as more people become aware of what healthcare reform will actually mean, which will cause Obama’s approval rate to drop below 50% and, probably, stay there for some time
- The worst case scenario is that there is little or no movement on the debate, and a sizeable portion of Americans remain confused about the plan. Here, Obama will have wasted crucial resources getting little from the public (at least if they hate it after Obama talks to them, we will know that they know about it and have an opinion on it.)
The outcome of the President’s speech tomorrow will be seen by the public’s support for his plan, his approval on the healthcare issue, and how many Americans remain confused and undecided on the issue of healthcare in America. A successful speech could dramatically change public opinion; pushing Obama’s plan through Congress with the support of Americans and lead the charge to the 2010 elections. A bad speech could doom the initiative and slow Obama’s progress as a President for a while. There could be a lot hanging on tomorrow night – for now, we’ll just have to wait and see.
